Express car wash value, verified from the site’s own data.
Wise Wash Partners is an underwriting, acquisition advisory and asset management firm for express car washes. We test a site’s operating, financial and membership data before capital moves, so buyers, lenders and owners act on numbers they can defend.
Members reconciled to billing records and tested for duplicates, dormancy and failed payments. What remains is active, unique and collectible.
02
Normalized earnings
Add-backs, one-time items, rent and maintenance capital tested line by line, so EBITDA reflects what the site earns under new ownership.
03
A price the data supports
Value built from verified earnings and a market multiple, with every deal adjustment and the gap to the asking price shown.
04
A priced operating plan
Membership, pricing, labor and throughput levers, each sized in dollars, risk-adjusted and sequenced.
Who we work with
One standard of evidence for every side of the table.
Whether you are buying a wash, funding one or running one, the question is the same: what does this asset earn, and what will it earn? We answer it from the site’s own data.
Loans in default, sites losing members, operators who have left. We assess the asset, keep it open and serving its members, and carry a plan through to resolution alongside the lender, the owner and their advisors.
Loans in defaultPayment or covenant defaults
Declining performanceMembers, volume or margin falling
Advisory and asset management across the life of a car wash asset.
From acquisition and financing through ownership, every engagement runs on our analytics platform and is delivered by people who have run car wash operations.
Every Wise Wash Partners engagement runs on a proprietary analytics platform developed from years of running car washes. It reads a site’s own point-of-sale, membership and billing data, and traces every figure to an input, a cited benchmark or a documented override.
16
analytical modules
1,100+
verification checks on every file
26
overrides, each fully revalued through the file
2,000
Monte Carlo simulations per analysis
Controls
Same inputs, same result.
Traceable
Every figure traces to an input, a benchmark with a cited source, or an override recorded in an audit register.
Reproducible
A client’s lender can rerun the file and reach the same answer.
Source data only
We specify the exact exports to pull, so nothing arrives as a summary.
Three components, one verified file
From raw exports to a supportable value.
Membership verification
What the membership base is worth. Membership is the largest single driver of an express wash’s value and the hardest to see in a report. The platform reads the roster, the wash log, the billing history and the point-of-sale audit log, and tests every row.
It identifies
Duplicate accounts and plates with no active vehicle
Dormant accounts still counted as members
Paused accounts and churn not yet surfaced
Promotional spikes and price step-up overhang
Conversion and back-office adjustments
It produces
Verified member count and collectible recurring revenue
Lifetime value by plan and commitment length, using survival analysis
A bridge from the reported base to the verified base
A verification workbook a lender or accountant can open and test
Membership retention, illustrative
Share of members remaining, by month since joining
Retention reaches 49% at month 24 against a 53% regional benchmark. A representative site, not a client engagement.
Operating benchmarking
Where the next dollar of earnings comes from. The platform scores a site or portfolio against published regional benchmarks, identifies each area of concern and prices every lever: the earnings it is worth, the ramp and the payback. Every input and assumption can be overridden, and the change flows through the whole plan.
It prices
Dunning, churn and membership conversion
Pricing, plan structure and retail ticket
Labor and each cost line
Water reclaim, capacity and throughput
Marketing
It produces
A benchmark scorecard for the site or portfolio
Areas of concern ranked by the earnings at stake
A sequenced plan with anticipated results, ramp and payback for each lever
Benchmark scorecardIllustrative
Metric
Status
Site
Membership conversion
4.1%
Monthly churn
7.9%
Labor, share of revenue
27%
Revenue per car
$11.40
Cars per labor hour
38
Three of five metrics sit outside the regional range. Hover a row for the detail.
Within benchmark Exception
Full underwrite
From raw exports to a supportable value, in one file. Sixteen modules carry a site from raw point-of-sale exports to a supportable value, a financeable capital structure and a written record of every assumption behind them.
It covers
Membership verification at row level
Trade area capture within three and five miles, with the permit pipeline weighted
P&L normalization, with add-backs credited by category
Current and future value on sourced multiples
Capital structure and debt service across the full term
Scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, a risk register and an override register
It produces
An underwriting report and workbook
A supportable value and a downside case
A lender package organized for a credit process
Side-by-side comparison and portfolio roll-up across sites
Debt service coverage by loan year, illustrative
Tested in every year, not only the interest-only period
Coverage is lowest in year 5 at 1.75x, still above the 1.25x covenant minimum. A representative site, not a client engagement.
Data sources
Works directly with the major point-of-sale and membership systems.
DRB Patheon and SiteWatch, Sonny’s, Washify, ICS, Micrologic, NXT and AMP. We specify the exact exports to pull, so the analysis starts from source data rather than a summary.
Start a conversation
Tell us about the transaction, the credit or the asset.
A short note is enough. We reply within one business day, and inquiries are confidential.
Every engagement is built on the same standard: findings traced to source data, recommendations an operator would stand behind, and a team that stays through implementation.
Evidence-based
Findings are built from source data, documented, and reproducible by a client’s advisors and lenders.
Operator-led
Engagements are led by professionals who have managed car wash operations, not only analyzed them.
Accountable
We stay with a plan through implementation and report against it until the work is done.
Confidential
Client information is used only for the engagement it was provided for.
How an engagement runs
Four steps, in order.
Scope
We agree the question, the timeline and the data required.
Analyze
Financial and operating data is reconciled and verified at source.
Report
Findings, implications for value and recommendations, with the supporting analysis.
Implement
Where engaged, we carry recommendations into operations.
What clients receive
Deliverables a lender can open and test.
Diligence report
Findings, adjustments and their basis, set out for decision makers.
Analysis workbook
Every input and calculation, open to a client’s advisors and lenders.
Operating plan
Initiatives sequenced by value, with timing and the resources each requires.
Lender package
The analysis organized for a credit process.
Valuation support
A supportable view of value, with the reasoning behind it.
Asset reporting
Monthly operating and condition reporting for assets under management.
Start a conversation
Tell us about the transaction, the credit or the asset.
A short note is enough. We reply within one business day, and inquiries are confidential.
Wise Wash Partners · Express Car Wash Underwriting
Cardinal Wash — Rowlett
Acquisition underwriting report — membership verification, competitive capture, normalized earnings, valuation, returns and an operating improvement plan.
Site
Cardinal Wash Rowlett
Location
Rowlett, TX (illustrative; no real address, and this site does not exist)
Market
DFW
Basis of sale
OpCo + real estate (fee simple)
Data as of
2026-08-31
Prepared by
Wise Wash Partners
Report generated
2026-09-01
Engine integrity
14 of 14 arithmetic checks passed
This is a sample. Cardinal Wash Rowlett does not exist. The site, the seller, every competitor named, and every figure in this report are invented to demonstrate a complete engine output. Nothing here describes a real business or a real transaction.
Recommendation
Retrade required
Seller presents 3,919 members; 3,587 survive verification (332 removed, 8.5% of the claimed count), collecting $103,231 per month.
Normalized EBITDA of $798,486 on $1,728,000 of revenue is a 46.2% margin against a 35–50% store-level benchmark.
Moderate competitive risk: 4 open tunnels within 3 miles hold the subject at 31.1% modeled share; the pipeline, weighted by its 95% chance of opening, removes a further 8.15 points.
At 5.78x on fee-simple EBITDA, real estate included, value is $4,615,249. After $749,190 of deal adjustments the supportable price is $3,866,059, a discount of $3,383,941 to the ask.
The improvement plan carries $263,752 of risk-adjusted EBITDA, worth $1,524,487 at the applied multiple.
Asking price
$7,250,000
Supportable price
$3,866,059
Price gap
-$3,383,941
Walk-away price
$3,866,059
Normalized EBITDA
$798,486
Applied multiple
5.78x
Equity required
$1,119,198
Equity IRR
24.26%
Minimum DSCR
1.75x
Verified members
3,587
Competitive risk
Moderate (44.9)
Probability NPV > 0
54.9%
01
Transaction and site profile
What is being bought, and the physical asset behind it.
Attribute
Value
Attribute
Value
Asking price
$7,250,000
Tunnel length
145 ft
Sites in transaction
1
Sustained throughput
125 cars/hr
Basis of sale
OpCo + real estate
Vacuum stalls
28
Real estate included
Yes
Equipment
Tunnel equipment installed 2018
Lot size
1.42 acres
Year built
2018
Adjacent AADT
38,500 cars/day
Water reclaim
Not installed
Operating days
361/yr
Operating hours
12.5/day
Cars per year
118,000
Cars per day
326.9
Seller context — Off-market approach through a regional broker. The seller is a retiring two-site operator; the second site is not offered. Sample data — every figure is invented.
02
Membership value verification
A member the seller counts is not a member the buyer collects from.
Claimed members
3,919
Verified members
3,587
Share of claimed removed
8.5%
ARPM
$28.78
Claimed MRR
$112,773
Collectible MRR
$103,231
MRR gap
$9,542
Monthly churn
7.90%
Member lifetime
12.7 mo
LTV, discounted
$205
Claimed base to verified base. Deductions apply in order and net against the remaining base, so no account is deducted twice.Member survival. The observed Kaplan-Meier curve is drawn from the seller's cancellation cohorts against the curve implied by the working churn rate.
Roster forensics
The seller's export carried 4,508 rows: 3,919 active, 187 paused and 402 already cancelled. The active rows are the starting population; the schedule below is what survives inspection.
Deduction
Flagged
Weight
Members removed
MRR effect
Why it is deducted
Duplicate accounts
106.0
100.0%
105.4
-$3,033
Same plate, card or contact appearing more than once. Only the excess above one is deducted.
Phantom plates
63.0
100.0%
63.0
-$1,813
Active subscription with no vehicle or plate identifier attached.
Non-transactional members
248.0
40.0%
99.1
-$2,852
No wash inside the dormancy window — elevated cancel probability, not yet cancelled.
Card-at-risk accounts
118.0
55.0%
64.7
-$1,862
Declined or expired card still carried as active; net of expected dunning recovery.
Paused / zombie accounts
187.0
0.0%
0.0
$0
187 paused rows sit OUTSIDE the active base and its MRR, so nothing is deducted for them here. They matter if the seller's headline count includes them — check the reconciliation — and as suppressed churn.
Members carrying multiple flags
2.0
—
0.0
$0
Deducted once at the combined weight, not once per flag.
Total removed
332.1
-$9,558
No percentage leakage: churn is on a members-lost basis and the card-at-risk deduction already holds the failing stock. Rows are rounded to one decimal, so they sum to 332.2 against the 332.1 total.
$9,542 per month separates the MRR presented from the MRR a buyer collects — 8.5% of the claimed figure, or about $114,500 of annual membership revenue. The earnings effect is smaller: section 04 takes $18,414 off EBITDA, worth $106,433 at 5.78x (shown as a memo in section 07). The deduction schedule above prices each removed member at the base ARPM of $28.78, which gives $9,558. The headline gap compares claimed MRR with collectible MRR directly, which gives $9,542. The difference is $16 a month, or 0.2%.
Churn and lifetime value
Measure
Value
Reference
Read
Voluntary churn
4.80%
4.5–4.6%/mo
Raymond James Spring 2026; Wash Launch 5/2026
Involuntary churn, gross
3.10%
2.8–3.0%/mo
Card failure before any recovery
Dunning recovery assumption
42.0%
—
Engine setting. It is not applied to the churn rates in this table, which carry no recovery credit
Involuntary churn
3.10%
—
Members lost — benchmark basis, no recovery credit
Total working churn
7.90%
7.3–7.6% blend in earlier sources; 7.9% in Rinsed Q2 2026; 5–6% best in class
This base is above the earlier blend, level with Rinsed's Q2 2026 reading and well off best-in-class
Average member lifetime
12.7 months
—
One divided by the working churn rate
Observed median lifetime (Kaplan-Meier)
9 months
—
From the seller's cancellation cohorts
LTV, contribution, discounted
$205
—
At 12.0% a year and a 63.0% contribution margin
LTV, gross revenue, 36 months
$345
~$440
The basis published benchmarks use (NCS 1/2026; MMCG 6/2026)
Plan mix
Plan
Claimed members
Share of claimed base
Average price
Lifetime
LTV, contribution
LTV, discounted
Basic Wash Club
1,493
38.1%
$21.53
12.7 mo
$172
$153
Premium Shine
1,346
34.3%
$29.44
12.7 mo
$235
$210
Cardinal Unlimited
842
21.5%
$36.18
12.7 mo
$289
$258
Fleet Unlimited
238
6.1%
$44.26
12.7 mo
$353
$315
214 members sit below the standard rate for their plan, a $2,278 per month gap. Trued up at 28.0% step-up attrition that is $19,682 of annual revenue, against $13,202 at risk from the members who leave. 109 accounts (3.0% of the verified base) enrolled inside the 90-day look-back window.
03
Trade area and competitive capture
A Huff gravity model splits trade-area demand across every tunnel in each ring.
Risk score
44.9
Current position / pipeline
38.6 / 59.8
Risk band
Moderate
Open rivals, 3 mi
4
Pipeline, 3 mi
1
Share, 3 mi
31.08%
After pipeline (if it opens)
22.49%
Cars at risk
30,962
Share, 5 mi
20.03%
Three-mile ring: modeled capture share today, and after the permitted site opens.Five-mile ring, including the two announced sites in the outer band. The after-pipeline panel shows the ten largest of eleven shares.
1 pipeline site inside 3 miles. Each threat is priced individually and weighted by how likely it is to open — an announced site is not a tunnel pouring concrete — giving an expected relative loss of 26.2% (a full 27.6% if every site opens), about 30,962 cars a year. This is the single largest swing factor in the model and the first thing to verify against municipal permit records.
Pipeline site
Distance
Status
Probability of opening
Share loss if it opens
Expected loss
National brand (permitted, under construction)
1.1 mi
construction
95.0%
27.6%
26.2%
Competitive set, 3-mile ring
Site
Status
Distance
Effective distance
Attractiveness
Share today
Share after pipeline
National brand (permitted, under construction)
Under construction
1.10 mi
2.28 mi
1.86
—
27.62%
Cardinal Wash Rowlett (subject)
Open
0.00 mi
2.00 mi
1.16
31.08%
22.49%
BlueRun Auto Spa
Open
1.60 mi
2.56 mi
1.62
26.36%
19.08%
Splash Point Express
Open
0.80 mi
2.15 mi
1.11
25.62%
18.54%
Lakeview Shine
Open
2.20 mi
2.97 mi
0.73
8.82%
6.39%
Rowlett Suds & Vac
Open
2.80 mi
3.44 mi
0.90
8.12%
5.88%
Saturation and demand reconciliation
Metric
3-mile ring
5-mile ring
Reference
Households
24,800
61,000
Population
66,500
163,000
Modeled registered vehicles
46,128
113,460
Households × 1.86 vehicles per household
Open express tunnels, incl. subject
5
8
Vehicles per tunnel
9,226
14,183
The risk score uses a derived floor of 6,942 vehicles per tunnel (see the components below). The published 1,500 figure has an ambiguous denominator in its source and is not used in the score.
Tunnels per 10,000 households
2.02
1.31
Dallas city runs 0.5 (WashIndex 6/2026); the oversupply is suburban.
Top-down demand
599,664
1,474,980
Vehicles × 13.0 washes a year — an assumption, not a published figure.
Calibrated demand
379,709
589,262
Back-solved from the subject's own volume and modeled share.
Reconciliation gap
-36.7%
-60.0%
Wider than ±25% means the washes-per-vehicle assumption, the competitor set or the subject's share is wrong.
Applied demand
379,709
589,262
Basis: calibrated
Modeled subject cars
118,000
118,000
Actual: 118,000
The top-down and calibrated demand figures differ by -36.7% in the 3-mile ring. That is outside the ±25% tolerance and says the 13-washes-per-vehicle assumption is too generous for this trade area. The engine is running on the calibrated basis, so the valuation is unaffected — but the gap should be closed before the ring is used to size a greenfield alternative.
Risk score components
Component
Reading
Score
Weight
Contribution
Basis
Competitor density, 3 mi
4.00
48.0
22.0%
10.6
The first competitor within a mile has minimal impact; the third creates a documented cliff near one-third of activity (MMCG 6/2026).
Competitor density, 5 mi
7.00
42.0
10.0%
4.2
Wider ring density. Optimal submarkets carry 3-10 moderate-quality competitors.
Modeled share, 3 mi
31.08
23.8
18.0%
4.3
Absolute modeled share of the ring. Scored on a half-life curve: 15% share scores 50, and every further 15 points of share halves the risk. A smooth curve is used deliberately — a linear score against an equal split of the ring pins at zero for any site above parity, which leaves the component unable to register anything at all across the normal operating range.
Vehicles per tunnel, 3 mi
9,226
39.8
20.0%
8.0
Saturation floor of 6,942 vehicles per express tunnel, derived from 250 cars/day ideal volume over 361 operating days at 13 washes per vehicle a year. At the floor the component scores 50; each further multiple halves it, and thinner coverage pushes it up.
Pipeline supply, 3 mi
1.00
65.5
20.0%
13.1
Share the subject loses when sites under construction or announced open.
Pipeline supply, 5 mi
3.00
48.3
10.0%
4.8
Wider-ring pipeline pressure.
Weighted risk score
100.0%
44.9
Moderate
04
Earnings normalization
Reported EBITDA is an opening position. This is the number a buyer can finance and defend.
Revenue
$1,728,000
Reported EBITDA
$660,400
Reported margin
38.2%
Add-backs claimed
$267,500
Add-backs as % of EBITDA
40.5%
Haircut applied
$0
Normalized EBITDA
$798,486
Normalized margin
46.2%
Cash EBITDA
$781,966
Guardrail rent
$138,240
From the EBITDA the seller presents to the EBITDA that carries a multiple, and then to the cash figure that carries debt service.
Revenue
Line
Amount
% of revenue
Membership revenue
$1,268,000
73.4%
Retail wash revenue
$402,000
23.3%
Other revenue
$58,000
3.4%
Total revenue
$1,728,000
100.0%
Membership is 75.9% of wash revenue, against a 75–80% institutional-quality threshold. Mister Car Wash reported that its Unlimited Wash Club made up 79% of wash sales in Q4 2025 and 76% in Q1 2026, and Rinsed data shows retail revenue falling 3.3% in Q1 2026 and 3.9% in Q2 2026 year over year, so the membership mix protects earnings as well as adding to them.
Cost structure against benchmark
Line
Amount
% of revenue
Benchmark
Band
Variance
Read
Source
Labor & payroll
$316,000
18.29%
17.50%
15.0–20.0
+$13,600
in band
NCS 1/2026 (~15%); MMCG pro forma 15.8%; Neo 17-25%. >22% is a red flag for express.
Chemicals & detergents
$113,000
6.54%
6.50%
5.0–10.0
+$680
in band
MMCG 5.22%; Car Wash Advisory 8.5-10%
Water & sewer
$84,000
4.86%
4.35%
3.5–5.0
+$8,832
in band
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Electricity
$51,500
2.98%
2.70%
2.2–3.2
+$4,844
in band
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Natural gas
$11,000
0.64%
0.61%
0.4–0.9
+$459
in band
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Repairs & maintenance
$99,000
5.73%
4.35%
3.5–5.5
+$23,832
over
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Credit card fees
$43,500
2.52%
2.50%
2.4–2.9
+$300
in band
MMCG 2.50%; Car Wash Advisory 2.5-3.0% of non-cash (~80% of sales)
Marketing & advertising
$17,000
0.98%
2.00%
1.5–3.0
-$17,560
under
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Insurance
$26,000
1.50%
1.00%
1.0–2.0
+$8,720
in band
MMCG 1.0%; Car Wash Advisory 1-2% (~$15K/site)
Property tax
$41,500
2.40%
2.15%
1.8–2.6
+$4,348
in band
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Supplies
$8,800
0.51%
0.43%
0.3–0.7
+$1,370
in band
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Damage claims
$15,800
0.91%
0.61%
0.4–0.9
+$5,259
over
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Other / miscellaneous
$44,500
2.58%
2.54%
1.5–3.5
+$609
in band
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
G&A / management
$196,000
11.34%
9.50%
9.0–10.0
+$31,840
over
Mister Car Wash G&A: 9.3% of FY25 revenue, 10.4% of Q1-26 revenue (company releases; our calculation)
Total operating expense before rent
$1,067,600
61.78%
Store-level EBITDA margin of 46.2% against a 35–50% benchmark for owned real estate before corporate G&A.
Add-backs and normalizations
Item
Category
Amount
Treatment
Disallowed
Note
Owner compensation (full draw)
Owner
$196,000
documented 100% credited
$0
Seller draws $196K, carried on the G&A / management line, verified against W-2 and the general ledger. The $78K market replacement manager is charged separately below — netting the two into one line and then also charging the manager counts that cost twice.
Rebrand and signage, one-time
Non-recurring
$31,000
documented 100% credited
$0
Completed March 2026, invoiced.
Legal and transaction preparation
Non-recurring
$26,000
documented 100% credited
$0
Sale-preparation costs, invoiced.
Owner vehicle and personal fuel
Personal
$14,500
documented 100% credited
$0
Verified against the general ledger.
Add-backs claimed, gross
$267,500
40.5% of reported EBITDA, against a 12% scrutiny threshold (Wash Launch 5/2026)
Disallowed under per-category treatment
$0
Each item credited by category and documentation. The Wash Launch screen (5/2026) takes a 50% haircut on add-backs above 12% of EBITDA. This report does not apply it mechanically because all four items are documented, so a buyer who applied the screen would reach a lower normalized EBITDA.
Site manager not on payroll
Normalization
-$78,000
Owner runs the site daily. A buyer hires a manager at market.
Insurance understated at seller loss history
Normalization
-$12,000
Re-quoted at buyer loss history and current limits.
Property tax reassessment on sale
Normalization
-$21,000
Modeled at the purchase price, not the current assessment.
Membership verification effect on EBITDA
-$18,414
Collectible membership revenue of $1,238,772 (collectible MRR of $103,231 times 12) against $1,268,000 in the trailing P&L, at contribution margin
Every derived operating metric, indexed against its benchmark. 100 means at benchmark.
Quality score
58.3
Cars per day
326.9
Capture of AADT
0.85%
Revenue per car
$14.64
Retail ticket
$14.56
Member washes/month
2.10
Conversion
8.91%
Peak-day capacity
43.9%
Each benchmarked metric indexed to its benchmark. Bars past 100 are ahead of the market; bars short of it are the improvement plan's raw material.
Metric
Actual
Benchmark
Index
Read
Note
Cars per year
118,000
90,250
131
ahead
Cars per day
326.9
250.0
131
ahead
Capture rate of AADT
0.85%
0.70%
121
ahead
Annual revenue
$1,728,000
$1,750,000
99
in line
Blended revenue per car
$14.64
—
—
no benchmark found
We found no published industry figure for blended revenue per car — this is derived, not benchmarked.
Retail ticket
$14.56
$13.00
112
ahead
Member share of wash revenue
75.9%
77.5%
98
in line
Verified members
3,587
2,875
125
ahead
Member ARPM
$28.78
$29.56
97
in line
Monthly churn
7.90%
7.45%
94
in line
Retail-to-member conversion
8.91%
9.80%
91
behind
Member washes per month
2.10
—
—
no benchmark found
We found no operator or survey that publishes member wash frequency — this is derived from the wash log or the input above.
Annual tunnel utilization
20.9%
—
—
no benchmark found
Peak-day capacity use
43.9%
—
—
no benchmark found
Labor per car
$2.68
—
—
no benchmark found
Chemical cost per car
$0.96
$0.52
54
well behind
Utilities per car
$1.24
—
—
no benchmark found
Revenue per vacuum stall
$61,714
—
—
no benchmark found
Normalized EBITDA margin
46.2%
45.0%
103
in line
Member wash frequency of 2.10 a month puts 90,390 of the 118,000 annual cars through membership, leaving 27,610 retail washes at a $14.56 ticket. We found no published figure for either blended revenue per car or member wash frequency — both are derived here, and both should be confirmed against the wash log before they are relied on. Chemical cost is in band as a share of revenue (6.54% against 6.50%) but well behind per car ($0.96 against $0.52). The two benchmarks imply different revenue per car: $0.52 ÷ 6.5% is $8.00, against $14.64 here. The improvement plan values only the revenue-based gap.
06
Category trending
Twenty-four months of history. Direction matters more than level.
Total revenue by month across the trailing 24 months.
Category
Latest
Mean
Annualized
Momentum
Year over year
R²
Read
Total revenue
$144,923
$140,588
+6.5%
+15.2%
+5.0%
0.63
mild improvement
Member revenue
$108,428
$100,995
+9.4%
+19.9%
+9.7%
0.83
clear improvement
Retail revenue
$31,627
$34,901
-1.9%
+3.0%
-7.7%
0.01
flat deterioration
Cars washed
9,731
9,608
+9.6%
+26.1%
+3.6%
0.28
clear improvement
Active members
3,746
3,531
+8.9%
+16.3%
+9.7%
0.95
clear improvement
New members
309
304
+2.6%
+6.1%
+2.8%
0.17
mild improvement
Cancellations
298
280
+8.8%
+16.3%
+9.7%
0.91
clear deterioration
Member ARPM
$28.95
$28.60
+0.5%
+3.1%
+0.0%
0.01
flat improvement
Labor cost
$24,696
$24,224
+4.1%
+7.9%
+4.2%
0.67
mild deterioration
Chemical cost
$8,678
$8,594
+9.3%
+25.4%
+3.3%
0.26
clear deterioration
Utilities
$11,543
$11,362
+9.9%
+26.8%
+4.0%
0.29
clear deterioration
Site EBITDA
$74,787
$70,591
+7.6%
+18.1%
+6.3%
0.60
mild improvement
Revenue mix trajectory — Member revenue growing 9.4%/yr against retail -1.9%/yr. Industry (Rinsed Q1 2026): member +10.6%, retail -3.3% YoY.
Member base trajectory — Active members trending +8.9%/yr (R² 0.95).
Net member adds — Net adds averaging 24/month with a falling trend.
The monthly history does not tie to the roster or the trailing P&L. It shows 3,746 active members in the latest month against 3,919 on the seller's export (a gap of 173, or 4.4%), and $108,428 of member revenue in the latest month against $103,231 of collectible MRR. Its latest-month site EBITDA of $74,787 annualizes to about $897,000, against $660,400 reported. The report does not reconcile these series. Closing the gaps is a first diligence request.
Industry reference: Rinsed reports member revenue up 10.6% and retail revenue down 3.3% year over year in Q1 2026, and up 10.4% and down 3.9% in Q2 2026. Against that backdrop, this site's member revenue (up 9.7% year over year) is growing slightly slower than the industry, and its retail revenue (down 7.7% year over year, though flat on trend with an R² of 0.01) is falling faster. A falling member line would be a serious problem; a slower one is a question for diligence.
07
Valuation
The sourced fee-simple multiple applied the way it is published: EBITDA before rent, real estate included, nothing added twice.
Normalized EBITDA
$798,486
Applied multiple
5.78x
Operating component (implied)
$2,536,452
Real estate inside the value
$2,078,797
Enterprise value
$4,615,249
Supportable price
$3,866,059
Asking price
$7,250,000
Gap to ask
-$3,383,941
Implied multiple at ask
9.08x
Supportable price per member
$1,078
Supportable price per annual car
$32.76
vs replacement cost
51.5%
The single-site OpCo+PropCo band is 5.00x–7.00x (strong 7-8x, distressed 3-4x), stated on a fee-simple basis — EBITDA before any rent charge, real estate included — and applied exactly that way: enterprise value is EBITDA × multiple with no separate real-estate addition. The operating and real-estate figures above are a split of that one number. A quality score of 58.3 positions the multiple at 58% of the band, then 0.39 turns come off for the current competitive position (score 38.6); the pipeline is charged separately in the price bridge, so no competitor is priced twice. Source: Wash Launch 5/2026; MMCG 7/2026
What the value is made of, against replacement cost and depreciated cost.From the seller's ask to the price this analysis supports.
Cross-checks
Check
Value
What it says
Blended capitalization rate
17.30%
EBITDAR of $798,486 over fee-simple value of $4,615,249.
Price as % of replacement cost new
51.5%
Against an assumed replacement cost new of $7.5M, near the top of the $4–8M all-in range MMCG published in 7/2026. The price is below replacement cost at every point in that range: 96.7% at $4M, 77.3% at $5M and 48.3% at $8M.
Price as % of depreciated cost
70.9%
8 years of physical depreciation on the improvements.
OpCo share of value
55.0%
The remaining 45.0% is real estate.
Implied multiple at asking price
9.08x
Against a tier band of 5.00x–7.00x. The Mister Car Wash take-private implies about 9.0x ($3.1 billion enterprise value on $345.4 million of 2025 Adjusted EBITDA, our calculation) across 549 locations at March 31, 2026. The ask implies 9.08x on a different basis (one site, real estate included), but that is in the same range as the multiple implied for a platform of that size, which is hard to justify for one site.
Supportable price per verified member
$1,078
Against a 36-month gross member LTV of $345. The two are not like for like: the price covers the whole business and its real estate, the LTV is member revenue only.
Guardrail rent as % of revenue
8.00%
The prudence guardrail is 8%. Listed sale-leaseback inventory implies 16–21%. The rent only splits the fee-simple value between operations and real estate. It does not change enterprise value or price.
Purchase price bridge
Step
Amount
Basis
Seller asking price
$7,250,000
Value at normalized EBITDA × 5.78x (fee simple: operating business and real estate together)
-$2,634,751
Difference between the asking price and the modeled value before deal-specific adjustments.
The verified-member adjustment of -$18,414 of EBITDA is worth -$106,433 of value at 5.78x. Shown as a memo so it is not double-counted.
Less deferred maintenance and capital catch-up
-$235,000
Less equipment reserve / end-of-life replacement
-$165,000
Less competitive-pipeline haircut (pipeline score 59.8 of 100)
-$331,190
Working capital and closing adjustments
-$18,000
Supportable purchase price
$3,866,059
Supportable price is $3,866,059 against an ask of $7,250,000 — a discount of $3,383,941, or 46.7%. The ask implies 9.08x, which is above the band for a single site and in the range of the multiple implied by the Mister Car Wash take-private. The pipeline haircut in the bridge is a scored adjustment (pipeline score 59.8 of 100), not the present value of the modeled cash-flow loss; section 09 models that loss directly in the returns.
Real estate structures
Structure
Rent
Cap rate
Proceeds or value
Coverage
Read
Fee simple hold
$138,240
6.65%
$2,078,797
5.78x
A component view of the single fee-simple value — the rent is a notional allocation, never an addition on top of the multiple.
Sale-leaseback at close
$138,240
6.21%
$2,226,087
5.78x
Rent at 8.00% of revenue. Post-lease OpCo EBITDA of $660,246 is carried at $2,536,452, the residual of the fee-simple value after the $2,078,797 real-estate component, so the two pieces total $4,762,539 — a gain of $147,290 against holding fee simple, which is exactly the spread between the quoted SLB cap and the clearing cap — a bid-ask read, not free money.
Ground lease, land only
$60,475
5.46%
$1,107,600
13.20x
We found no published car wash ground-lease cap rate. The Boulder Group reports an auto-sector cap rate, not one specific to car washes. Land is valued at $780,000 per acre ($1,107,600 over 1.42 acres), inside the $600,000 to $900,000 range in section 13. This is spread off the sale-leaseback rate by an assumption of -75 bps — a scenario, not a comp.
08
Capital structure and returns
Sizing, amortization, covenant testing and the equity return the structure produces.
Purchase price
$3,866,059
Total uses
$4,197,710
Debt
$2,728,512
Seller note
$350,000
Seller note payoff at exit
$562,024
Equity
$1,119,198
Debt plus seller note to price
79.6%
Minimum DSCR
1.75x
Year 1 cash-on-cash
39.98%
Equity IRR
24.26%
Equity MOIC
2.29x
Exit equity proceeds
$415,885
Max price at DSCR floor
$5,268,169
Sources
Amount
Uses
Amount
Senior debt
$2,728,512
Purchase price
$3,866,059
Seller note (7.00%, full standby)
$350,000
Closing costs
$96,651
Sponsor equity
$1,119,198
Deferred capex funded at close
$235,000
Total sources
$4,197,710
Total uses
$4,197,710
The seller note carries 7.00%. It is modeled on full standby, which is what SBA 7(a) requires before a seller note counts toward the equity injection (SOP 50 10 8, effective June 2025 — the note may cover at most half of the 10% injection, so cash must be at least 5%): no payments for the life of the SBA loan (it is repaid at exit in year 7), interest accruing, and the note excluded from the lender's coverage test. The accrued interest of $212,024 is paid at exit, taking the payoff to $562,024 against $350,000 of principal. That cost comes out of the equity proceeds and is the difference between an equity IRR that looks like a free $350,000 and one that is honestly priced.
Facility
Amount
Rate
Amortization
Term
Annual service
Balloon
SBA 7(a) acquisition loan
$2,728,512
9.50%
25 yr
25 yr (1 interest-only)
$286,067
$271,875
Illustrative terms. A lender sets maturity by use of proceeds, so the 25-year term is a favorable case. On the same cash flows, year-3 coverage would be about 1.64x on a 20-year amortization, 1.46x on 15 years and 1.18x on 10 years, the last below the 1.30x floor. Cash flows are before income tax and include no management fee or working-capital change.
Debt service coverage by year against the 1.30x lender floor. Coverage is tested on EBITDA less maintenance capex, not EBITDA alone.
Year
EBITDA
Maintenance capex
Cash available
Debt service
Interest
Ending balance
DSCR
Cash to equity
1
$721,934
$15,242
$706,692
$259,209
$259,209
$2,728,512
2.73x
$447,483
2
$616,421
$14,514
$601,907
$286,067
$258,008
$2,700,453
2.10x
$315,840
3
$513,029
$13,820
$499,209
$286,067
$255,223
$2,669,608
1.75x
$213,142
4
$543,309
$14,405
$528,904
$286,067
$252,162
$2,635,703
1.85x
$242,837
5
$575,185
$15,014
$560,171
$286,067
$248,797
$2,598,433
1.96x
$274,104
6
$608,736
$15,650
$593,086
$286,067
$245,098
$2,557,464
2.07x
$307,019
7
$644,045
$16,312
$627,733
$286,067
$241,032
$2,512,428
2.19x
$341,666
Minimum DSCR of 1.75x sits against a 1.30x floor for single-purpose discretionary-spend assets.
09
Future value
The hold-period projection and the exit.
Hold period
7 years
Exit-year EBITDA
$644,045
Exit multiple
5.53x
Exit cap rate
6.90%
Gross exit value
$3,561,569
Net exit value
$3,490,337
NPV at 11.5%
$178,341
Unlevered IRR
12.48%
Unlevered MOIC
1.81x
Pipeline drag applied
26.20%
Revenue and EBITDA across the hold period.Unlevered cash flow, with the net exit value in the final year.
Year
Revenue
Operating expense
EBITDAR
EBITDA
Margin
Cars
Maintenance capex
Free cash flow
1
$1,651,448
$929,514
$721,934
$721,934
43.7%
108,875
$15,242
$706,692
2
$1,578,288
$961,867
$616,421
$616,421
39.1%
100,455
$14,514
$601,907
3
$1,508,369
$995,339
$513,029
$513,029
34.0%
92,687
$13,820
$499,209
4
$1,573,278
$1,029,969
$543,309
$543,309
34.5%
93,613
$14,405
$528,904
5
$1,640,980
$1,065,795
$575,185
$575,185
35.1%
94,550
$15,014
$560,171
6
$1,711,596
$1,102,860
$608,736
$608,736
35.6%
95,495
$15,650
$593,086
7
$1,785,250
$1,141,205
$644,045
$644,045
36.1%
96,450
$16,312
$627,733
Exit
Exit-year EBITDA × 5.53x (fee simple, one number)
$3,561,569
less 2.0% selling costs
$3,490,337
EBITDA falls from $721,934 in year one to a trough of $513,029 in year three, then recovers to $644,045 by exit. That is the competitive pipeline working through the model: cars fall 7.7% a year in years 1 to 3 (118,000 to 92,687, or 21.5% in total) as the pipeline arrives, against an expected relative share loss of 26.20% in section 03, while operating expense grows about 3.5% a year and the model assumes price growth of 2.5% and cost inflation of 3.2%. Category demand growth is close to exhausted — professional wash adoption sits at 79% of US drivers against a practical ceiling MMCG puts near the low 80s — so the model assumes only modest growth (1.0% a year in cars, 2.0% in members, 2.5% in price), not a market that grows into the problem.
10
Scenarios, sensitivity and Monte Carlo
What has to be true, what breaks it, and how often the deal works.
Case
Year 1 EBITDA
Exit EBITDA
Net exit value
NPV
Unlevered IRR
Equity IRR
Equity MOIC
Minimum DSCR
Upside
$864,324
$1,527,709
$9,027,845
$4,933,182
30.32%
67.07%
10.48x
3.10x
Base
$721,934
$644,045
$3,490,337
$178,341
12.48%
24.26%
2.29x
1.75x
Downside
$519,653
-$328,138
$0
-$4,021,717
—
—
n/m
n/m
The downside case loses all of the equity. The equity multiple and minimum DSCR are not meaningful here: the model computes -4.64x and -1.19x because cash flow after debt service is negative. They measure the size of the shortfall, not a realistic return, because a sponsor would stop funding and the lender would act.
Each driver moved to its low and high while everything else holds, ranked by the swing in equity IRR. Ranges are not symmetric (for example EBITDA -15% and +10%, exit multiple -1.5x and +1.0x), so the ranking reflects range width as well as sensitivity.
Driver
Base
Low input
High input
IRR at low
IRR at high
Swing
Member base growth
2.00 %/yr
-5.00
8.00
-15.80%
55.44%
71.24%
Competitive pipeline drag
26.20 %
0.00
39.30
61.93%
3.77%
58.16%
Price growth
2.50 %/yr
0.00
5.00
3.16%
44.01%
40.85%
Normalized EBITDA (before rent)
$798,486
$678,713
$878,335
6.82%
36.03%
29.21%
Cars per year growth
1.00 %/yr
-3.00
4.00
9.25%
31.17%
21.92%
Operating cost inflation
3.20 %/yr
1.50
6.00
29.32%
9.33%
19.99%
Exit EBITDA multiple
5.53 x
4.03
6.53
9.93%
28.38%
18.45%
Base equity IRR is 24.26%. The top driver is Member base growth with a 71.24% swing — that is where the remaining diligence hours belong. The discount rate shows no swing because it moves net present value, not the internal rate of return; that is arithmetic, not an error.
Distribution of net present value across 2,000 runs, every driver drawn simultaneously from a triangular distribution on seed 20260901.
Outcome
P5
P25
Median
P75
P95
Mean
Net present value
-$2,330,362
-$914,597
$205,442
$1,510,218
$3,394,015
$335,941
Net exit value
$805,559
$2,160,971
$3,376,987
$4,773,104
$6,854,092
$3,555,440
Minimum DSCR
0.47x
1.32x
1.81x
2.30x
2.94x
1.78x
Across 2,000 runs: net present value is positive in 54.9% of cases, equity IRR clears the 18.0% target in 57.2%, and the DSCR floor is breached in 24.6%. These results are at the supportable price. A coin-flip on value and a one-in-four chance of breaching the DSCR floor, even there, leave little room for a higher price.
Walk-away analysis
Constraint
Price
What it means
Supportable price from the bridge
$3,866,059
Enterprise value less deal adjustments.
Price at the 18.0% equity IRR target
$4,128,601
The most that can be paid and still clear the hurdle.
Price at zero net present value
$4,040,050
The unlevered indifference price, discounting at 11.5%.
Maximum price at the DSCR floor
$5,268,169
The price at which coverage reaches the 1.30x floor at this leverage. A lender would also cap the loan against appraised value.
Asking price
$7,250,000
Implies 9.08x.
The lowest of these binds. Here it is the bridge price, which comes from deal adjustments; both return tests would allow a higher price. Walk away above $3,866,059. That is 46.7% below the ask.
11
Operating improvement plan
What a buyer earns after close — deliberately not priced into the supportable price.
Initiatives
11
Gross EBITDA opportunity
$405,773
Risk-adjusted at 65%
$263,752
Value created
$1,524,487
Capex required
$154,000
Pro forma EBITDA
$1,062,238
Pro forma EBITDA over today's revenue
61.5%
Pro forma value
$6,139,736
Enterprise value created by each initiative at the applied multiple.
Lever
Where it stands
Target
EBITDA
Value
Capex
Return
Effort
Evidence
Voluntary churn reduction Membership
4.80%/mo voluntary
2.4%/mo voluntary, which with 3.1% involuntary gives a 5.5% best-in-class total
$246,370
$1,424,019
—
—
Medium 3-9 months
Best-in-class total churn is ~5-6%/mo vs. a 7.3-7.9% industry range (Wash Launch 5/2026; MMCG 6/2026; Rinsed Q2 2026). Wash quality consistency and rewash recovery are the documented drivers — retailers expect 53% of dissatisfied customers to return for a rewash, but only 17% of consumers say they do (ICA Pulse Q2 2026).
Retail-to-member conversion Membership
8.91% of retail cars converting
9.8% — the published rate at this member count
$56,398
$325,980
$15,000
376%
Medium 2-6 months
Conversion scales with member count: 3.4% below 2,000 members, 9.8% at 2,000-4,000, 15.4% above 4,000 (Raymond James Spring 2026). Greeter staffing and pay-station offer design are the levers.
Install water reclaim Cost structure
No reclaim system on site
Cut the $84,000 water and sewer line by 50%
$42,000
$242,760
$135,000
31%
High 4-9 months
MMCG 7/2026 says reclaim systems cut fresh water draw by half or more. The plan takes the low end, 50% of this site's water and sewer line, which is $0.36 per car, before the power and chemical cost of running the system.
Fund local marketing to benchmark Growth
0.98% of revenue on local advertising
2.00% — the benchmark spend
$15,034
$86,897
—
—
Low 1-6 months
Benchmark local advertising is ~2.0% of revenue (MMCG pro forma 3/2026). The return assumption — incremental revenue equal to 3% of current revenue — is an engine parameter, not a published benchmark. This figure is net: the incremental spend is already deducted.
Recover 45% of failures through card-updater, retry logic and SMS recovery
$10,887
$62,927
$4,000
272%
Low 0-90 days
Involuntary churn is 2.8-3.0%/mo and roughly 39% of all churn (Raymond James Spring 2026; Wash Launch 5/2026). It is a systems problem, not a customer-satisfaction problem.
Labor model Cost structure
18.29% of revenue ($316,000)
17.50% benchmark — capture 60% of the gap
$8,191
$47,344
—
—
Medium 1-3 months
Express exterior labor runs 15-20% of revenue; above 22% signals a full-service cost structure on an express asset (NCS 1/2026; MMCG 3/2026; Neo 5/2026).
Insurance Cost structure
1.50% of revenue ($26,000)
1.00% benchmark — capture 60% of the gap
$5,184
$29,964
—
—
Low 0-90 days
Insurance runs 1-2% of revenue, roughly $15K per site (Car Wash Advisory). This lever is measured from the reported $26,000; section 04 already adds $12,000 for a buyer re-quote, so treat the two as partly overlapping.
Promotional rate step-up Pricing
214 members below the standard plan rate, a $2,278/month gap
Step the discounted base to standard rate, assuming 28% step-up attrition
$4,083
$23,600
—
—
Medium 1-4 months
~79% of customers accept a price increase when quality is consistent, but member price satisfaction fell to 46% in Q2 2026 — the lowest in over a year (ICA Pulse Q1/Q2 2026). Sequence the step-up behind a quality fix.
Electricity Cost structure
2.98% of revenue ($51,500)
2.70% benchmark — capture 60% of the gap
$2,903
$16,779
—
—
Medium 2-6 months
Modeled at 2.7% of revenue (MMCG pro forma 3/2026 — a model, not a survey).
Chemical cost per car Cost structure
6.54% of revenue ($113,000)
6.50% benchmark — capture 60% of the gap
$415
$2,399
—
—
Low 0-60 days
Chemical cost of $0.40-0.65 per car is the documented band (Car Wash Advisory).
Total
$405,773
$2,345,368
$154,000
Risk-adjusted at 65% execution capture: $263,752 of EBITDA, $1,524,487 of value.
The plan takes normalized EBITDA from $798,486 to $1,062,238 and value from $4,615,249 to $6,139,736, for $154,000 of capital. None of it is priced into the supportable price in section 07 — this is what a buyer earns, not what a seller should be paid for. The voluntary-churn target of 2.4% and the 45% card-failure recovery together imply total churn of about 4.1% a month, below the 5-6% best-in-class band cited in this report. Paying for your own improvement plan is a common way a disciplined underwrite turns into an overpayment. The levers also overlap: more members lift the conversion bracket and enlarge the card-failure base, so they do not add cleanly. Several initiatives add revenue, so a true pro forma margin would be lower than the 61.5% ratio shown against today's revenue. That ratio sits above the 35–50% store-level benchmark, so treat the plan as an upper bound until each lever is tested.
12
Risk register
Findings the engine can evidence, ranked by severity.
Critical
0
Serious
5
Watch
1
Favorable
1
seriousMembership8.5% of the claimed member count does not survive verification.
ImplicationA modest but real reduction in collectible MRR.
ActionTrue-up at closing against a live export.
seriousMembershipMonthly churn of 7.90% matches the industry's Q2 2026 reading of 7.9% (Rinsed) and is above the 7.3-7.6% range in earlier sources.
ImplicationMember lifetime of 12.7 months compresses LTV and makes the base expensive to hold.
ActionSplit voluntary from involuntary before pricing the fix — roughly 39% of churn is card failure, which is a systems fix.
seriousFinancialAdd-backs equal 40.5% of reported EBITDA, above the 12% scrutiny screen (Wash Launch 5/2026).
ImplicationEach item has been credited per its category and documentation; $0 is disallowed. A pool this large separates the reported P&L from the earnings a buyer will receive, which is why each item needs invoice-level support.
ActionRequire invoice-level support for every add-back above $5,000, and reconcile the owner draw against payroll filings.
seriousValuationAsking price implies 9.08x, above the 5-7x band for this tier.
ImplicationThe Mister Car Wash take-private implies about 9.0x (our calculation from a $3.1 billion enterprise value and $345.4 million of 2025 Adjusted EBITDA) across 549 locations and about 2.5 million members at March 31, 2026. The ask implies 9.08x on a different basis (one site, real estate included), but that is in the same range as the multiple implied for a platform of that size, which is hard to justify for one site.
ActionAnchor the negotiation to the tier band and the quality score.
seriousAssetsTunnel equipment is 8 years old.
ImplicationMaintenance capex moves from $0.08-0.12 per car toward $0.25+ (Wash Launch 5/2026). The model reserves $0.14 per car, between the two.
ActionCommission an independent equipment condition report and reserve against it in the price bridge.
warningCapital structureThe seller note is modeled on full standby — a concession some sellers will refuse.
ImplicationIf the seller insists on current pay, the note enters the coverage test and minimum DSCR falls.
ActionConfirm standby in the LOI before relying on this structure.
goodValuationSupportable price is 51.5% of an assumed $7.5M replacement cost new.
ImplicationBuying below replacement cost gives a basis a new builder would struggle to match. The price is below replacement cost across the whole $4–8M range MMCG published in 7/2026.
ActionConfirm equipment condition supports the discount rather than explaining it.
13
Assumptions and sources
Every benchmark the report leans on, with its source and confidence grade.
Every benchmark in this report names its source. Where we found no credible published figure, the report says so rather than filling in a plausible number. Figures marked “our calculation” are derived by Wise Wash Partners from the cited primary source. Four gaps matter here and are flagged wherever they are used: we found no published car wash ground-lease cap rate, no published blended revenue per car, no published member wash frequency, and the trade-area saturation floor has an ambiguous denominator in its source.
High confidence — primary or auditable (21)
Benchmark
Value
Range
Source
Total monthly member churn
7.45 %/mo
7.30 – 7.60
Raymond James Car Wash Insight Spring 2026 (7.3%); Wash Launch Group 5/2026 (7.6%); NCS 1/2026 (7.6% Q3-25). Rinsed Q2 2026 reports 7.9%, above this range.
Voluntary churn
4.55 %/mo
4.50 – 4.60
Raymond James Spring 2026 (4.5%); Wash Launch 5/2026 (4.6%)
Involuntary (card-failure) churn
2.90 %/mo
2.80 – 3.00
Raymond James Spring 2026 (2.8%); Wash Launch 5/2026 (3.0%)
Member share of wash sales (institutional quality)
77.50 %
75.00 – 80.00
Mister Car Wash Unlimited Wash Club 79% of wash sales in Q4-25 and 76% in Q1-26 (company releases); Wash Launch >70% threshold
Retail-to-member conversion, <2,000 members
3.40 %
3.00 – 3.40
Raymond James Spring 2026
Conversion, 2,000-4,000 members
9.80 %
8.00 – 10.00
Raymond James Spring 2026
Conversion, >4,000 members
15.40 %
11.00 – 15.40
Raymond James Spring 2026 (15.4%); NCS 1/2026 (11.1%)
Median unlimited membership, Dallas
$21.99/mo
11.00 – 85.00
WashIndex Dallas TX, 6/9/2026
Involuntary share of total churn
39.00 %
38.00 – 40.00
Derived from RJ Spring 2026 (2.8 / 7.3 = 38.4%); this site: 3.10 / 7.90 = 39.2%
Median single wash, Dallas
$12.00
10.00 – 50.00
WashIndex Dallas TX, 6/9/2026
South region price growth since 2020 (weakest region other than the West)
9.00 % since 2020
9.00 – 9.00
WashIndex Car Wash Price Index, 6/2026
Mature site revenue
$1,750,000
1,500,000 – 2,000,000
Mister Car Wash FY25: $1,051.7 million of net revenues across 548 year-end locations, about $1.92 million per location (our calculation, year-end count). The applied $1.75 million is a Wise Wash Partners assumption for a mature single site.
Corporate G&A
9.50 % of rev
9.00 – 10.00
Mister Car Wash G&A: 9.3% of FY25 revenue, 10.4% of Q1-26 revenue (company releases; our calculation)
Store-level EBITDA margin, owned RE, pre-G&A
45.00 % of rev
35.00 – 50.00
Mister Car Wash Q1-26: 34.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin plus 10.4% G&A, about 45% before G&A (FY25 about 42%), our calculation; MMCG 35% to 50% four-wall margins for mature express sites; NCS 40-60%
Platform (6+ sites), OpCo post-rent
9.00 x EBITDA
8.50 – 10.00
Mister Car Wash take-private by Leonard Green & Partners, announced 2/18/2026 and completed 5/19/2026: $3.1 billion enterprise value ÷ $345.4 million FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA = 8.97x (our calculation)
NNN sale-leaseback ASKING cap rate
6.21 %
6.20 – 6.50
Raymond James Spring 2026, 190 listed properties, 19.0 yr avg term
Boulder Group auto sector net lease cap
6.45 %
6.10 – 6.75
Boulder Group Q2 2026 National Net Lease Report
Prudent rent as % of gross revenue
8.00 % of rev
6.00 – 10.00
Wash Launch 5/2026. Listed SLB inventory implies 16-21% — underwrite to market rent, not contract rent.
MMCG 6/2026 ($12-14); Wash Launch 5/2026 band $12-18
Ideal operating volume (±5%)
250.00 cars/day
238.00 – 263.00
Wash Launch 5/2026
Conservative capture rate of adjacent AADT
0.70 % of AADT
0.50 – 1.00
MMCG 6/2026
Sustained tunnel throughput, 120-150ft
115.00 cars/hr
100.00 – 130.00
MMCG 6/2026 (vendor 180+/hr is peak, not underwritable)
Year 1 of ramp
65.00 % of stabilized
60.00 – 70.00
MMCG 6/2026
Year 2 of ramp
85.00 % of stabilized
80.00 – 90.00
MMCG 6/2026
Labor
17.50 % of rev
15.00 – 20.00
NCS 1/2026 (~15%); MMCG pro forma 15.8%; Neo 17-25%. >22% is a red flag for express.
Chemicals
6.50 % of rev
5.00 – 10.00
MMCG 5.22%; Car Wash Advisory 8.5-10%
Chemical cost per car
$0.52/car
0.40 – 0.65
Car Wash Advisory
Credit card fees
2.50 % of rev
2.40 – 2.90
MMCG 2.50%; Car Wash Advisory 2.5-3.0% of non-cash (~80% of sales)
Insurance
1.00 % of rev
1.00 – 2.00
MMCG 1.0%; Car Wash Advisory 1-2% (~$15K/site)
Maintenance capex, well-maintained
$0.10/car
0.08 – 0.12
Wash Launch 5/2026 ($0.25+/car for aging equipment)
Maintenance capex, aging equipment
$0.25/car
0.25 – 0.40
Wash Launch 5/2026
Small multi-site (2-5), OpCo+PropCo
6.00 x EBITDA
5.00 – 7.00
Wash Launch 5/2026
Single site, OpCo+PropCo (strong 7-8x, distressed 3-4x)
6.00 x EBITDA
5.00 – 7.00
Wash Launch 5/2026; MMCG 7/2026
NNN sale-leaseback CLEARING cap rate
6.65 %
6.20 – 6.90
Wise Wash Partners assumption. Sources: Raymond James asking cap of 6.21% (190 listed properties); Boulder Group Q2 2026 retail bid-ask spread of 22 bps and auto-sector cap rate of 6.45%; MMCG 7/2026 reports car wash net lease trading at 6.2% to 6.4%. The 6.65% used here sits above those figures. It only splits the fee-simple value between operations and real estate and does not change enterprise value or price.
Replacement cost new, express site with land (assumed)
$7,500,000
4,000,000 – 8,000,000
Wise Wash Partners assumption for a DFW site, near the top of the $4-8M all-in range including land published by MMCG 7/2026
Add-back scrutiny threshold
12.00 % of EBITDA
12.00 – 12.00
Wash Launch 5/2026 — add-backs above this get a 50% haircut
WashIndex Dallas TX 6/9/2026 (28 express tunnels; city boundary only — suburbs are where DFW supply grew)
Professional wash adoption vs. low-80s ceiling
79.00 % of drivers
79.00 – 83.00
MMCG 7/2026, citing ICA research (79% of US drivers); MMCG puts the practical ceiling near the low 80s
2026E new express openings vs 2022 peak
-52.00 % vs peak
-52.00 – -49.00
MMCG 7/2026 (about 450 or fewer in 2026E, against 943 in 2022 and 880 in 2023)
Low confidence — single or modeled source (11)
Benchmark
Value
Range
Source
Water & sewer
4.35 % of rev
3.50 – 5.00
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Electricity
2.70 % of rev
2.20 – 3.20
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Natural gas
0.61 % of rev
0.40 – 0.90
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Repairs & maintenance
4.35 % of rev
3.50 – 5.50
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Local advertising
2.00 % of rev
1.50 – 3.00
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Property tax
2.15 % of rev
1.80 – 2.60
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Supplies
0.43 % of rev
0.30 – 0.70
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Damage claims
0.61 % of rev
0.40 – 0.90
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
Other / miscellaneous
2.54 % of rev
1.50 – 3.50
MMCG pro forma 3/2026
DFW car wash pad land
$750,000/acre
600,000 – 900,000
Maxx Builders 7/2026 (contractor source — verify against comps)
Trade-area saturation floor
1,500 vehicles/tunnel
1,500 – 1,500
MMCG 6/2026; Wash Launch 5/2026. Denominator definition is ambiguous in source — treat as registered vehicles in ring per express tunnel and sanity-check locally. Not used in the risk score, which uses a derived floor of 6,942 (section 03).
14
Model audit
The engine checks its own sums and identities on every recalculation.
Check
Expected
Actual
Result
What it proves
Member reconciliation
3,919
3,919
pass
Verified + deducted must equal the claimed base.
Deduction roll-up
332.10
332.20
pass
Individual deductions must sum to total members deducted, within rounding of the one-decimal rows.
Revenue roll-up
1,728,000
1,728,000
pass
Revenue components must sum to total revenue.
Reported EBITDA
660,400
660,400
pass
Revenue less operating expense and rent.
Cash EBITDA
781,966
781,966
pass
Normalized EBITDA less the maintenance capex reserve.
EBITDA bridge addition
798,486
798,486
pass
Every line of the bridge sums to the stated subtotal.
Fee simple value
4,615,249
4,615,249
pass
Operating component plus the capped real-estate component equals the fee-simple value.
Price bridge
3,866,059
3,866,059
pass
Enterprise value less deal adjustments, with any floor at zero applied, equals the supportable price.
OpCo / PropCo split
100.00
100.00
pass
The two components must account for the whole.
Projection arithmetic
644,045
644,045
pass
Exit-year revenue less operating expense equals EBITDAR.
Cash flow vector length
8.00
8.00
pass
One entry at time zero plus one per projected year.
Sources and uses
4,197,710
4,197,710
pass
Debt plus seller note plus equity must fund total uses.
Year 1 equity cash flow
447,483
447,483
pass
Cash available less debt service.
Improvement plan roll-up
405,773
405,773
pass
Individual initiatives must sum to the plan total.
Overrides in force
None. Every figure in this report is computed from the inputs — no analyst override has been applied.
All 14 internal checks pass. They test sums and identities only; they do not test the monthly history in section 06 or the model's assumptions. The calculation core behind this report carries a unit-test suite covering the numeric primitives, the membership forensics, the gravity model identities, the valuation and capital arithmetic, the override cascade and the CSV ingestion.
Start a conversation
Tell us about the transaction, the credit or the asset.
A short note is enough. We reply within one business day, and inquiries are confidential.
A clear path forward for car wash assets under pressure.
Wise Wash Partners steps in when a car wash loan defaults, a site loses members or an operator leaves. We assess the asset, keep it running and carry out a plan to stabilize it, working alongside the lender, owner and their advisors.
Six ways a car wash ends up on a lender’s watch list.
Loans in default
Payment or covenant defaults where the lender needs an operator’s view of the collateral.
Declining performance
Sites losing members, volume or margin faster than the market around them.
Operator departures
An owner or management team that has stepped away, leaving a site without leadership.
Receiverships
Court-appointed or private receiverships that need a car wash operator in place.
Portfolio pressure
Platforms with sites that are weighing on the whole portfolio.
Hard deadlines
A maturity, refinance or sale that needs a verified operating record on a short timeline.
Stabilization workpaperIllustrative
Condition
Assessed
Stabilized
Cancellation rate
Equipment in service
Membership sales
Pricing and plan structure
Labor cost
Reporting to the lender
Six exceptions at assessment, each resolved by stabilization. Hover a condition to see what changed.
Exception at assessment Resolved, agreed to site data Resolved and within benchmark
The path forward
Assess, agree, carry it through.
Assess the asset
A condition, value and going-concern review of the site, with the membership base, equipment and financial position verified rather than assumed.
Agree the plan
Priorities, responsibilities, reporting and capital needs set with the lender, owner and their advisors, with verified projections for forbearance or workout discussions.
Carry it through
Interim management that keeps the site open, staffed and serving its members, alone or alongside a receiver, then stabilization and a verified record for a refinance, recapitalization or sale.
Alongside your team
We work within the lender’s or owner’s process, alongside their advisors, and report against the plan every month until the situation is resolved.
Operators, not observers
Our operating leadership has run car wash platforms of more than one hundred locations, and every assessment runs on our analytics platform.
Start a conversation
Tell us about the transaction, the credit or the asset.
A short note is enough. We reply within one business day, and inquiries are confidential.
Capital markets, real estate and car wash operations, assessed together.
Wise Wash Partners pairs capital markets and real estate experience with senior car wash operating experience, so the capital decision and the operating reality are judged at the same table.
Frank Harris
Operations and underwriting
Frank has held four roles across the car wash industry. He built and ran his own flex-model wash to a premium average ticket, led operations as executive vice president for a national express brand across more than one hundred locations in multiple states, and as senior vice president of operations built a Southeast platform from the ground up.
Earlier, as a regional manager for a car wash chemical supplier, he worked the vendor side of the industry. He designed and built the firm’s analytics platform.
Ted Stone
Capital markets and real estate
Ted grew up in his family’s development business; the Stones began building residential subdivisions and homes in 1955. He studied commercial real estate, finance and development economics at Southern Methodist University before entering the industry full time.
Across several market cycles he has acquired, developed or capitalized more than five million square feet of commercial space and 4,000 acres of land, from raw land and entitlements through vertical development and long-term capitalization.
Jed Rollins
Investment and financial structuring
Jed’s experience centers on commercial real estate and spans investment, financial structuring and project execution. He has worked on complex projects collectively valued at more than $2 billion, with direct responsibility for structuring large-scale public-private partnerships and municipal financing arrangements.
Earlier, he founded an education-technology company and an entrepreneurial incubator, with responsibilities spanning business development, finance and day-to-day operations.
Start a conversation
Tell us about the transaction, the credit or the asset.
A short note is enough. We reply within one business day, and inquiries are confidential.
Prefer to talk? Call and you will reach a principal, not a switchboard. For a loan in default or a site under pressure, say so and we will prioritize it.
